POLITICAL REALITY

Posted at 8:22 p.m. ET

The delusional left - that is redundant - believes it elected Barack Obama. Some instruction is required, even if those giving it will probably be denounced as closet fascists and secret Bush lovers.

Doug Schoen, a thoughtful Democratic strategist, sets the record straight and examines who really put the president-elect in the White House:

The general consensus of Election Night commentators was that our center-right country has become a center-left country. I must offer what will be, for liberals, a buzz kill: Barack Obama owes his victory not to the left, but to the middle. As he sets out to govern, he forgets that at his peril.

First, and probably most important, the ideological composition of the electorate this year was virtually identical to that of 2004. This year, 22% of voters were liberals, 44% were moderates and 34% were conservatives. In 2004, 21% were liberals, 45% were moderates and 34% were conservatives.

So much for the Daily Kos theory of American politics.

The real change between 2004 and 2008 came in the number of people calling themselves Democrats. They had been basically equal in numbers to Republican identifiers in 2004. In this election, exit polls reported self-declared Democrats outnumbered Republicans, 39% to 32%.

Translation: The country has not shifted further left. Rather, in all likelihood, the Democratic Party has shifted further right.

Now there's an absolutely intriguing thought, and one of the freshest ideas I've seen this campaign season - the possibility that moderates, out of disillusion with the Republicans - are calling themselves Democrats, even though they're not part of the party base.  Moderating the Democratic Party would mark an important improvement in American politics, even though Dennis Kucinich might have to take tranquilizers.

But what about those much talked about, map-changing wild cards - African-Americans and young voters?

African-Americans had been 11% of the electorate in 2004. In this election, they were 12%. Obama did slightly better than Kerry among them, but not by enough to have materially impacted the outcome.

And youth? In 2004, 18- to 29-year-olds made up 17% of the electorate. They were 18% in 2008. While again here Obama did better than Kerry, this would account for only a point or two.

Stunning.  It's amazing what a little real research can do. 

When asked about an Obama presidency, 30% said that they were excited by it, while 20% said that they were concerned and a quarter said that they were scared. So, though "hope" is one of the buzzwords of the Obama campaign, there's also palpable fear out there.

Maybe Rev. Wright had his impact.

The implications of the election, and the polls that accompanied it:

There is little appetite for a supersized Democratic agenda. Polling does show support for another stimulus program and initiatives to help beleaguered homeowners. But it is hard to see how other Obama initiatives like raising the capital gains tax rate or raising the tax on dividends in the face of a bitter recession will be well-received by an already nervous electorate.

At a time when our deficit is approaching $1 trillion, the public will not be receptive to massive spending programs.

Do you sense an opening for conservatives here, if the Democrats unravel into an undisciplined army?  Punishment may be only two years away.

Finally, Democrats must resist the temptation to take on symbolic issues that appeal to the left and divide the country...

...America has not changed as much as many commentators think it has. Rather, there has been a rejection of George Bush and failed Republican ideas. Carefully crafted bipartisan policies offer the greatest chance to strengthen America and rebuild our battered national psyche.

Of course, he's writing from a Democratic perspective, but we can't deny that the public, at least until time provides perspective, has rejected Mr. Bush and the Republicans.  We see the numbers.

I wonder, though, how much stomach there is on the Democratic side for bipartisan policies.  I suspect the Dems may overreach, as they have before, even challenging a more cautious President Obama.  They may interpret the election as a mandate for policies that have failed repeatedly, and that have little favor among the majority.  That may be the train wreck to come, and Republicans must be ready to put the cars back on the track.

November 6, 2008.